Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
